Development and performance evaluation of a risk assessment model for cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis coexisting with papillary thyroid carcinoma
Original Article

Development and performance evaluation of a risk assessment model for cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis coexisting with papillary thyroid carcinoma

Yuyu Hua1#, Caihong Wang1#, Fei Wang2, Ruheng Feng1, Qiqi Qin1, Jing Wen1,3

1School of Medical Imaging, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, China; 2Department of Radiology, Luzhou People’s Hospital, Luzhou, China; 3Ultrasound Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, China

Contributions: (I) Conception and design: Y Hua, C Wang; (II) Administrative support: J Wen; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: J Wen; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: Y Hua, C Wang, R Feng, Q Qin; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: Y Hua, F Wang; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.

#These authors contributed equally to this work as co-first authors.

Correspondence to: Jing Wen, PhD. School of Medical Imaging, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, China; Ultrasound Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, No. 28 Guiyi Street, Guiyang 550004, China. Email: wenjing@gmc.edu.cn.

Background: The incidence of coexisting Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is rising. The risk of cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in HT-PTC patients remains controversial, and overlapping ultrasonographic features of lymph nodes complicate accurate diagnosis. Therefore, this study aimed to construct a risk assessment model for CLNM in patients with concurrent HT and PTC, and to evaluate its clinical application value.

Methods: A total of 261 patients with postoperative pathologically confirmed PTC coexisting with HT who underwent thyroid surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2018 to December 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were first performed to identify independent predictors of CLNM. Variables with P<0.05 in the multivariate analysis were incorporated into model development. Four models were constructed: based on tumor nodule ultrasound features (TN-US), lymph node ultrasound features (LN-US), their combination (TN-LN-US), and a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters (Clin-US). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate diagnostic performance, and the DeLong test was used to compare the area under the ROC curve (AUC) among the models. Internal validation was conducted using the bootstrap method, and model performance was further assessed using calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Results: Among the 261 patients with PTC coexisting with HT, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified age, alkaline phosphatase, primary tumor microcalcifications, primary tumor vascularity, lymph node morphology, intranodal cortical echogenicity, and lymph node microcalcifications as independent risk factors for CLNM (P<0.05). The Clin-US model demonstrated the best diagnostic performance (AUC =0.842, bootstrap 95% confidence interval: 0.792–0.885). Bootstrap internal validation indicated stable model parameters. Calibration curves showed good model fit, with predicted probabilities closely matching actual incidence. DCA and CIC further confirmed favorable clinical applicability of the model.

Conclusions: We developed a Clin-US model that combines clinical data and ultrasound for predicting lymph node metastasis in PTC patients with concurrent HT. The model demonstrated promising diagnostic performance and may assist clinicians in preoperative risk stratification, facilitating individualized treatment decisions for this population.

Keywords: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC); Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT); cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM); risk assessment model


Submitted Apr 07, 2026. Accepted for publication Jun 18, 2026. Published online Jul 27, 2026.

doi: 10.21037/gs-2026-0205


Highlight box

Key findings

• The combined model integrating clinical, laboratory, and lymph node ultrasound features achieved the best performance for predicting cervical lymph node metastasis (area under the curve =0.842), outperforming traditional models.

What is known and what is new?

• Younger age, primary tumor microcalcifications, abundant vascularity, abnormal lymph node morphology, and internal microcalcifications are established risk factors for lymph node metastasis, consistent with prior studies.

• This is the first study to reveal that elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is paradoxically associated with reduced CLNM risk in Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) + papillary thyroid carcinoma patients, challenging the conventional understanding of ALP in thyroid cancer alone.

What is the implication, and what should change now?

• The multidimensional model should replace single-indicator approaches in preoperative risk stratification, and ALP interpretation must account for HT status. Future research needs multicenter validation and development of bedside tools (e.g., mobile calculators).


Introduction

In recent years, the incidence of concurrent Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has been steadily increasing, with a coexistence rate of approximately 10–58% (1). However, the risk of cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with HT and PTC remains controversial. Some studies suggest that HT exerts a protective effect on PTC prognosis, with fewer cases of extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and distant metastasis (1-3); conversely, other studies indicate that the persistent accumulation of cytokines under chronic inflammatory conditions in HT may increase the risk of CLNM in PTC (4-7). HT is characterized by extensive lymphocytic infiltration and reactive lymphadenopathy, often leading to enlargement of multiple cervical lymph nodes, with ultrasound features overlapping with those of metastatic lymph nodes (e.g., loss of hilum, cortical thickening), thereby posing challenges for accurate preoperative diagnosis of CLNM in the presence of both diseases. Currently, ultrasound remains the first-line modality for CLNM evaluation, but conventional ultrasound has limited sensitivity and diagnostic performance (8), and a single parameter is insufficient to meet clinical demands.

To improve the accuracy of preoperative CLNM assessment, several research teams have developed risk assessment models for patients with HT and PTC. Wang et al. (9) constructed a clinical-ultrasound nomogram incorporating age, thyroglobulin antibody (TGAb), tumor size, punctate hyperechogenicity, and vascularity grade [area under the curve (AUC) =0.76], but its specificity was only 51%, and lymph node ultrasound features (LN-US) were not included. Chen et al. (10) developed a comprehensive prediction model based on sex, maximum tumor diameter, multifocality, margin, and thyrotropin receptor antibody (TRAb) (AUC =0.82), which likewise lacked LN-US. In summary, existing models have the following limitations: insufficient integration of LN-US; inadequate combination of clinical, serological, and ultrasound parameters; and a lack of systematic comparisons of diagnostic performance among different feature combinations.

Therefore, this study aims to integrate multidimensional data including clinical characteristics, serum biomarkers, and ultrasound imaging features, construct risk assessment models with different feature combinations, and compare their diagnostic performance to identify the optimal model for evaluating CLNM risk in patients with PTC coexisting with HT, thereby providing a more reliable basis for preoperative risk assessment and surgical decision-making. We present this article in accordance with the TRIPOD reporting checklist (available at https://gs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/gs-2026-0205/rc).


Methods

Patients and methods

This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the Medical Science Research Ethics Committee of the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University (approval No. 2022, ethics review No. 346). Due to the retrospective design, written informed consent was waived. A total of 261 patients who underwent thyroid surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2018 to December 2023 and were postoperatively pathologically diagnosed with HT coexisting with PTC were retrospectively enrolled. All patients completed preoperative thyroid and cervical lymph node ultrasonography. Based on postoperative pathological results, patients were divided into a lymph node metastasis group and a non-metastasis group (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Flowchart of patient selection for differentiating CLNM of PTC patients with HT. CLNM, cervical lymph node metastasis; HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; PTC, papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Inclusion criteria: (I) age 18–80 years; (II) complete preoperative thyroid and cervical lymph node ultrasound and serological examinations [including alkaline phosphatase (ALP), hemoglobin (Hb), thyroid function, and related antibodies]; (III) thyroid nodules classified as ≥ Chinese Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (C-TIRADS) 4a according to the 2020 Chinese Guidelines for Ultrasound Malignancy Risk Stratification of Thyroid Nodules (11); (IV) lymph node metastasis status confirmed by postoperative pathology as the gold standard, with negative results determined by combining postoperative pathology and preoperative fine-needle aspiration cytology; in case of discrepancy, postoperative pathology (regional lymph node dissection/biopsy) was considered definitive.

Exclusion criteria: (I) incomplete clinical or ultrasound data; (II) history of neck surgery, radiotherapy, or chemotherapy; (III) postoperative pathology confirming a type of thyroid cancer other than PTC; (IV) concurrent Graves’ disease.

Instruments and methods

Ultrasound examination

Ultrasound examinations were performed using Philips iU22, EPIQ5 (L12-5 probe, 5–12 MHz), and Mindray Resona R9 (L14-3 probe, 3–14 MHz) color Doppler ultrasound systems. Patients were placed in the supine position with the neck adequately exposed. Routine multi-plane scanning of the thyroid and cervical lymph nodes was conducted, and ultrasound features of target nodules and lymph nodes were recorded.

Data collection

Three categories of data were collected:

  • Clinical information: sex, age, body mass index (BMI).
  • Laboratory indicators: preoperative thyroid function and related antibodies [thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), TGAb], ALP (reference range, 35–100 U/L), Hb (115–150 g/L), among others.

Ultrasound features: location, margin, aspect ratio, microcalcifications, capsular invasion, vascularity grade [Adler semi-quantitative grading (12): grade 0–1 = not abundant, grade 2–3 = abundant], and ETE (defined as tumor destruction of the thyroid capsule or invasion of adjacent tissues). In cases of multiple nodules, imaging features of the largest tumor were analyzed. Cervical LN-US included location, long‑toshort axis ratio (≤2), hilum, cortical echogenicity, microcalcifications, cystic change, and vascularity (Figure S1).

Quality control

To reduce selection bias, all consecutive patients meeting the eligibility criteria during the study period were enrolled. To minimize information bias, data extraction was performed using a standardized form, and ultrasound features were independently evaluated by two physicians (with >5 years of experience); disagreements were resolved by consensus. No formal inter-rater reliability test (e.g., Kappa) was performed, which is acknowledged as a limitation.

Sample size

The final model in this study included seven predictors, and the number of CLNM-positive events was 141. Thus, events per variable (EPV) =141/7≈20.1.

Statistical analysis

Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 25.0 and Stata 12 software. Continuous variables were expressed as mean ± standard deviation, and intergroup comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Categorical variables were presented as number (%), and group comparisons were performed using the Chi-squared test or Fisher’s exact test (mean imputation for continuous variables, mode imputation for binary variables). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of CLNM. Features with P<0.05 in the multivariate analysis were incorporated into model development. Four models were constructed: based on tumor nodule ultrasound features (TN-US), LN-US, their combination (TN-LN-US), and a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters (Clin-US). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted, and the AUC was compared using the DeLong test. The model with the best diagnostic performance was selected based on AUC, specificity, and sensitivity. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method. Model performance was further evaluated using calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.


Results

Baseline characteristics

This study included 261 patients with PTC coexisting with HT, including 141 patients (54.0%) in the lymph node metastasis group and 120 patients (46.0%) in the non-metastasis group. There were 223 females (85.4%) and 38 males (14.6%). The mean age was 37.1±9.81 years in the metastasis group and 42.5±11.5 years in the non-metastasis group. Univariate analysis showed that several factors were significantly associated with CLNM in patients with PTC and HT (P<0.05) (Table 1).

Table 1

Baseline clinical and ultrasound characteristics of the patients

Variables Lymph node metastasis group (n=141) No lymph node metastasis (n=120) P values
Sex 0.29
   Male 24 (17.0) 14 (12.0)
   Female 117 (83.0) 106 (88.0)
Age (years) 37.1±9.8 42.5±11.5 <0.001*
BMI (kg/m2) 0.053
   <24 94 (67.0) 65 (54.2)
   ≥24 47 (33.0) 55 (45.8)
Alkaline phosphatase 62.0±29.8 80.7±38.3 <0.001*
FT3 4.72±1.0 4.72±0.7 0.96
FT4 18.2±8.1 17.0±3.6 0.11
TSH 3.99±9.0 3.29±2.6 0.37
TGAb 542±951.0 412±632.0 0.18
TPOAb 222±299.0 169±210.0 0.09
Hemoglobin 140±15.2 138±16.0 0.20
Tumor features
Location 0.07
   Upper 35 (24.9) 18 (15.0)
   Lower 48 (34.0) 38 (31.7)
   Middle 58 (41.1) 64 (53.3)
Aspect ratio 0.81
   <1 76 (53.9) 62 (51.7)
   ≥1 65 (46.1) 58 (48.3)
Margin 0.12
   Irregular 93 (66.0) 67 (55.8)
   Regular 48 (34.0) 53 (44.2)
Border blurred 0.55
   Yes 101 (71.6) 81 (67.5)
   No 40 (28.4) 39 (32.5)
Capsule invasion >0.99
   Yes 14 (9.9) 12 (10.0)
   No 127 (90.1) 108 (90.0)
Microcalcification <0.001*
   Yes 123 (87.2) 78 (65.0)
   No 18 (12.8) 42 (35.0)
Hypervascular <0.001*
   No 94 (78.3) 77 (54.6)
   Yes 26 (21.7) 64 (45.4)
Tumor diameter 0.003*
   >10 mm 82 (58.2) 47 (39.2)
   ≤10 mm 59 (41.8) 73 (60.8)
Lymph node features
   Location 0.19
    Lateral 50 (35.5) 53 (44.2)
    Central 91 (64.5) 67 (55.8)
   Shape <0.001*
    Irregular 48 (34.0) 14 (11.7)
    Regular 93 (66.0) 106 (88.3)
   Border 0.02*
    Unclear 10 (7.1) 1 (0.8)
    Clear 131 (92.9) 119 (99.2)
   Long/short-axis ratio (L/S) 0.41
    >2 45 (31.9) 45 (37.5)
    ≤2 96 (68.1) 75 (62.5)
   Hilum 0.001*
    Yes 24 (17.0) 42 (35.0)
    No 117 (83.0) 78 (65.0)
   Cortical echogenicity 0.001*
    Hypoechoic/isoechoic 94 (66.7) 114 (95.0)
    Hyperechoic 47 (33.3) 6 (5.00)
   Microcalcification <0.001*
    Yes 62 (44.0) 19 (15.8)
    No 79 (56.0) 101 (84.2)
   Abnormal vascular 0.001*
    Yes 88 (62.4) 50 (41.7)
    No 53 (37.6) 70 (58.3)
   Cystic change 0.01*
    Yes 14 (9.9) 2 (1.7)
    No 127 (90.1) 118 (98.3)

*, P<0.05. BMI, body mass index; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine; TGAb, thyroglobulin antibody; TPOAb, thyroid peroxidase antibody; TSH, thyroid-stimulating hormone.

Logistic regression analysis

Based on the univariate analysis, variables with statistical significance were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results showed that age [odds ratio (OR) =0.953, P<0.05], ALP (OR =0.983, P<0.05), tumor calcification (OR =3.697, P<0.05), tumor vascularity (OR =3.005, P<0.05), lymph node morphology (OR =3.908, P<0.05), lymph node cortical echogenicity (OR =0.105, P<0.05), and lymph node calcification (OR =0.240, P<0.05) were independent predictors of CLNM. Features with P<0.05 in the multivariate analysis were included in subsequent model development (Table 2).

Table 2

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis

Variables Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis
OR (95% CI) P values OR (95% CI) P values
Age 0.953 (0.930–0.976) <0.001 0.965 (0.936–0.995) 0.02
ALP 0.983 (0.975–0.991) <0.001 0.986 (0.976–0.996) 0.006
Tumor microcalcification 3.679 (1.978–6.845) <0.001 2.821 (1.231–6.462) 0.01
Tumor size 2.159 (1.314–3.546) 0.002
Tumor vascular 3.005 (1.740–5.190) <0.001 2.247 (1.098–4.600) 0.02
LN-shape 3.908 (2.025–7.540) <0.001 3.061 (1.358–6.900) 0.007
LN-border 9.084 (1.146–72.029) 0.03
LN-hilum 2.625 (1.473–4.677) 0.001
LN-cortical echogenicity 0.105 (0.043–0.257) <0.001 0.130 (0.045–0.378) <0.001
LN-microcalcification 0.240 (0.133–0.433) <0.001 0.408 (0.195–0.851) 0.01
LN-vascular pattern 2.325 (1.413–3.824) 0.001
LN-cystic change 6.504 (1.447–29.226) 0.01

ALP, alkaline phosphatase; CI, confidence interval; LN, lymph node; OR, odds ratio.

Model development and comparison of diagnostic performance

To evaluate the predictive value of different feature combinations for CLNM, four models were constructed in this study: TN-US, LN-US, TN-LN-US, and Clin-US. ROC curves were used to assess the AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence interval of each model (Table 3, Figure 2). The DeLong test results showed that the Clin-US model had a significantly higher AUC than the other combined models and individual parameters (P<0.001), with an AUC of 0.842, sensitivity of 70.92%, and specificity of 84.17%, indicating optimal diagnostic performance. Internal validation using the bootstrap method (1,000 resampling iterations) yielded a 95% confidence interval of 0.792–0.885 for this model (Figure 3).

Table 3

Comparison of the efficacy of various indicators

Characteristic AUC (95% CI) SE Youden’s Index Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%)
Age 0.641 (0.580–0.700) 0.0348 0.3151 72.34 59.17
ALP 0.647 (0.586–0.705) 0.0340 0.2766 60.99 66.67
Tumor feature
microcalcification 0.611 (0.549–0.671) 0.0260 0.2223 87.23 35.00
Vascularity pattern 0.619 (0.557–0.678) 0.0283 0.2372 45.39 78.33
Lymph nodes feature
Shape 0.612 (0.550–0.671) 0.0248 0.2238 34.04 88.33
Echogenicity 0.642 (0.580–0.700) 0.0223 0.2833 33.33 95.00
microcalcification 0.641 (0.579–0.699) 0.0268 0.2814 43.97 84.17
TN-US models 0.667 (0.606–0.724) 0.0311 0.2399 91.49 32.50
LN-US models 0.757 (0.700–0.808) 0.0275 0.4330 71.63 71.67
TN-LN-US models 0.809 (0.756–0.855) 0.0258 0.4654 67.38 79.17
Clin-US models 0.842 (0.792–0.884) 0.0239 0.5509 70.92 84.17

ALP, alkaline phosphatase; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; Clin-US, a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters; LN, lymph node; LN-US, lymph node ultrasound features; OR, odds ratio; SE, standard error; TN-LN-US, the combination of TN-US and LN-US; TN-US, tumor nodule ultrasound features.

Figure 2 Comparison of diagnostic efficacy for different grouping models. ALP, alkaline phosphatase; Clin-US, a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters; LN-US, lymph node ultrasound features; TN-LN-US, the combination of TN-US and LN-US; TN-US, tumor nodule ultrasound features.
Figure 3 Internal validation using the bootstrap method (1,000 resampling iterations). AUC, area under the curve; Clin-US, a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters; ROC, receiver operating characteristic

Model performance evaluation

The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted probability of CLNM and the observed incidence (Figure 4A). The Hosmer‑Lemeshow test yielded a P value of 0.883, further confirming satisfactory model calibration. DCA demonstrated that the model provided a positive net benefit across a risk threshold range of 0.20–0.90, indicating its clinical utility over a wide range of thresholds (Figure 4B). The CIC revealed good consistency between the high‑risk population identified by the model and the actual number of CLNM cases (Figure 4C). Overall, the Clin‑US model exhibited favorable risk stratification capability and clinical applicability across different thresholds.

Figure 4 Diagnostic performance of Clin-US models in HT-PTC patients. (A) Calibration curve; (B) decision curve analysis; (C) clinical impact curve. Clin-US, a full-feature model integrating clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound parameters; HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; PTC, papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Discussion

Based on clinical information, laboratory indicators, and ultrasound features, this study constructed four predictive models to evaluate the risk of CLNM in patients with HT coexisting with PTC. The results showed that the Clin-US model demonstrated the best diagnostic performance (AUC =0.842), with a sensitivity of 70.92% and specificity of 84.17%. Previous models often lacked adequate integration of LN-US, insufficient combination of clinical, serological, and ultrasound parameters, and systematic comparisons of diagnostic performance among different feature combinations. Wang et al. (9) developed a clinical‑ultrasound nomogram (AUC =0.76) with a specificity of only 51%, and did not include LN-US. The comprehensive prediction model by Chen et al. (10) (AUC =0.82) similarly lacked sufficient integration of LN-US. The model by Lin et al. (13) was applicable only to cN0 stage papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients. On this basis, the Clin-US model in our study fully incorporated clinical data and LN-US, and its superiority was validated through multi‑model comparisons.

Our results show that age is an important influencing factor for CLNM, with younger patients being more susceptible to lymph node metastasis, which is consistent with previous reports (14,15). This may be related to the more aggressive biological behavior of tumors in younger patients. Therefore, more active treatment strategies and enhanced follow-up surveillance may be necessary for younger patients.

Contrary to previous studies, the present study found that decreased serum ALP level was significantly associated with an increased risk of CLNM in patients with HT coexisting with PTC. Previous studies have reported that ALP is highly expressed in thyroid carcinoma tissues, particularly in older patients, tall cell variant, and those with poor prognosis (16,17). We speculate that the reasons for these discrepancies may include: first, differences in study populations—this study focused on patients with PTC coexisting with HT, whereas previous studies predominantly included patients with PTC alone; second, differences in the types of specimens tested. Additionally, the source heterogeneity and functional diversity of ALP isoenzymes may also play an important role. We believe that these differences are not contradictory but rather complement the understanding of the complex biological role of ALP in thyroid cancer from different perspectives. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to validate the underlying mechanisms.

Regarding primary tumor-related features, some studies have reported a positive correlation between CLNM and nodule size (18-20), which is consistent with our findings. This may be attributed to the secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor by malignant nodules, which stimulates angiogenesis, thereby accelerating nodule growth and promoting further invasion. Regarding other primary tumor features, microcalcifications and abundant vascularity were identified as independent risk factors for CLNM. Hypoxia and necrosis within the tumor microenvironment contribute to the formation of calcifications, and these environmental changes accelerate tumor cell invasiveness and metastatic potential (21). Abundant vascularity increases intratumoral neovascularization, which on one hand enhances contact between actively proliferating cells and lymphatic vessels, and on the other hand increases the number of lymphaticvenous connections, thereby promoting lymphatic metastasis (22). Notably, ETE did not differ significantly between the two groups in this study, which differs from the findings of Mao (23). Possible explanations include the limited sample size, the study population restricted to PTC patients with coexisting HT (whose biological behavior may differ from that of PTC alone), and the fact that chronic inflammationinduced interstitial fibrosis in the context of HT may penetrate the true thyroid capsule, resulting in false ETE that can be easily confused with true invasion (24).

Regarding LN-US, abnormal lymph node morphology, hyperechoic cortex, and microcalcifications were identified as independent risk factors for CLNM, consistent with previous studies (25). The researchers suggest that hyperechoic cortex may be attributed to thyroglobulin deposition (26-28); microcalcifications mainly reflect psammoma bodies and serve as strong evidence of lymph node metastasis; metastatic lymph nodes may exhibit capsular disruption and irregular margins due to tumor cell infiltration and destruction of reticular fibers (29). In this study, the specificity of cortical hyperechogenicity and microcalcifications reached 95% and 84.17%, respectively, and the specificity of abnormal lymph node morphology was 88.33%, indicating that preoperative ultrasound should emphasize comprehensive analysis of multiple signs to avoid misjudgment based on a single parameter.

Currently, most models rely on a single examination modality. In this study, we integrated multidimensional routine preoperative parameters, including clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound features, to construct the Clin‑US model. The calibration curve showed excellent agreement between the predicted probabilities and the actual incidence. DCA and CIC indicated that the net benefit of this model was superior to either the strategy of total lymph node dissection or complete observation. In summary, the Clin‑US model demonstrates favorable diagnostic performance for assessing CLNM risk in patients with PTC coexisting with HT, facilitating preoperative individualized risk assessment.

This study has several limitations. First, the single‑center retrospective design and the relatively small sample size may introduce selection bias and information bias. Second, the assessment of ultrasound features is somewhat subjective; although quality control measures were implemented, inter‑observer variability may still have an impact. Third, the use of fine‑needle aspiration cytology as one of the reference standards is susceptible to variations in puncture technique and the pathologist’s judgment, potentially introducing bias. Fourth, the model underwent only internal validation without multi‑center external validation, so caution is needed when extrapolating the results, and there is a risk of overfitting. Nevertheless, the ultrasound features and clinical variables incorporated in this study are all routinely available in clinical practice, which endows the model with certain potential for generalization. Future prospective, multi‑center external validation studies are needed to further evaluate the robustness of this model.


Conclusions

Age, ALP, primary tumor microcalcification, primary tumor vascularity, lymph node morphology, lymph node cortical echogenicity, and lymph node microcalcification were independent influencing factors for CLNM in patients with PTC coexisting with HT. Compared with the other models, the Clin-US model demonstrated promising diagnostic performance in predicting lymph node metastasis in PTC patients with coexisting HT, which may assist clinicians in preoperative risk assessment for this patient population.


Acknowledgments

None.


Footnote

Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the TRIPOD reporting checklist. Available at https://gs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/gs-2026-0205/rc

Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://gs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/gs-2026-0205/dss

Peer Review File: Available at https://gs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/gs-2026-0205/prf

Funding: The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82260160), Science and Technology Fund Project of the Health Commission of Guizhou Province (No. gzwkj2021-376), and Science and Technology Planning Project of Guizhou Province (No. ZK [2022] General Program 440).

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://gs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/gs-2026-0205/coif). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. This study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the Medical Science Research Ethics Committee of Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University (approval No. 2022 Ethics Review No. 346). Due to the retrospective design, written informed consent was waived.

Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.


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Cite this article as: Hua Y, Wang C, Wang F, Feng R, Qin Q, Wen J. Development and performance evaluation of a risk assessment model for cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis coexisting with papillary thyroid carcinoma. Gland Surg 2026;15(7):190. doi: 10.21037/gs-2026-0205

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